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Thinking Implied Odds Can Impact Your
Bottom Line
Often when you’re playing Texas Holdem
you find yourself looking intensely at the pot trying to figure
out the amount of chips in there. You’re trying to figure
the outs
and odds and whether or not you should call a bet
or not. You hear a lot of players say things like, ‘I called
because I was getting pot odds.’
You rarely hear a player say I called because
of implied odds.The reason being, in a game of No Limit
Texas Hold’em a player can go All In at anytime
which is something you can’t quantify that easily. But
understanding implied odds and using it selectively can dramatically
impact your bottom line. Let’s take a look…
What you need to do is build a profile of
the players at your table (see how to 'Tag the Fish' at PokerRoom.com) and figure
out which ones are likely to pay you off. Once you have done
this... it’s time to incorporate this ‘implied thinking’
into your game.
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For example, you call a $50 pre-flop raise
with 7-8 suited and the flop comes 6-9-K. Your opponent, who
you know is an aggressive player with a lot of chips, bets the
pot ($100). Now, based on the pot odds you can’t call $100
to win a $200 pot, when you’re over a 3-to-1 underdog to
hit your straight, with two cards to come.
In fact, your opponent most probably won’t
let you see the river card, so you’re a 5- to-1 underdog
with one card to come (see Outs and Odds to see how we arrived at these
numbers)
Let’s look at how you can make this
hand work and why your winning nights can be 3x more profitable
then the amounts you lose on losing nights …
First things first, these type of plays are
to be used selectively and under optimal conditions. With that
said, my thinking here goes like this; because real money No
Limit is such a volatile game, you need to think outside the
box and do a few things that may seem illogical at first glance,
which is where implied odds come in.
I think you get one or two opportunities a
night where you’re in a position to extract a lot from
your opponent; if you can’t take advantage of this you
will lose playing no limit Texas Holdem real money cash games, over any longer
time frame.
Being aware of the circumstances and recognizing
the implied odds will give you more opportunities and help make
these situations seem logical. Most importantly, it will put
you in a position to get all of your opponent’s money more
often.
Remember when you first sit down at the table,
whether it be online or live, it’s best to play by the
book, show a few winning hands hopefully, and build your stack
up before making these kinds of moves.
Typically, I’ll play tight but aggressive
early on, try and build up my chips, get to know who I’m
playing with before looking towards the implied odds. The better
you become at playing Texas Holdem poker , the
quicker you will process all of this information in the future.
OK let’s get back to the above example…
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Let’s say I’ve been playing for
5 hours, I started with $500, now I have $940. My opponent, who
knows I am a good solid player now, has a lot more chips then
I have. When I call his early position raise from around back,
with no one else in the pot, he probably puts me on something
like AQ, KQs, AJs. He thinks I would not make this play with
connectors with just the two of us in the pot. So already he’s
probably misreading my hand.
Flop comes 6-9-K, again, I have 7-8. He bets
$100 and is holding A-K. Again based on the pot odds I can’t
make this call but because I know my opponent
is going to pay me off big time if I hit my card. I’m thinking
implied odds here and make what looks like an illogical call.
Let’s take a look at it from a mathematical standpoint,
so you can better understand the thinking behind this play…
Let’s say I have 8 outs (all the 5’s
and 10’s in the deck) and let’s also say I’m
only going to see the turn card. If my card doesn’t hit
I probably won’t see the river since he’ll bet me
out of the pot at that point. So 8 outs with one card to see
gives me about a 20% chance of hitting my card or 4 to 1 odds
against me making the straight (see outs and odds and pre-flop odds sections).
I’m calling $100 to win $200 or getting
2 to 1 from the pot when in fact, I’m a 4 to 1 underdog
of hitting my straight. A call here doesn’t seem to make
sense based on the pot odds.
But based on the implied odds (which is how
I’m thinking here since I feel my opponent is going to
pay me off) it’s a different story. I’m still a 4
to 1 underdog of hitting my card but now I feel I’m calling
$100 here to win at least $400 or getting better
than 4 to 1, correctly giving the odds I need to make this play.
Let’s look at how I want this hand to play out…
I call the $100 bet and the turn card is a
5. At this point maybe he thinks I have KQs with a backdoor flush
draw. The pot is now $300 and he definitely feels his A-K is
good and bets out $350. You call this bet and the river card
is a 2 with no flush possibilities on board, your opponent bets
the river.
You call and win a hugepot; or raise and he
calls you, doubling your stack. Your $940 is now $1880, not a
bad payday for a $100 call on the flop. Turns out the implied
odds for your call paid you over 9 to 1 on your $100 investment.
What I just described seems like the perfect
scenario but if you’re aware of your environment, opportunities
like this will present themselves fairly regularly in real money poker. You just need to make it
part of your holdem game and have the awareness to take advantage
of it.
Remember good players are very cognicent of
the implied odds, as well as pot odds. Make it a part of your
No Limit Texas Holdem game too…
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To complete your knowledge of the math behind
Texas Holdem Poker, read these sections: Starting Hands and Drawing Hand Odds.
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